1,728 words, 9 minutes read time
When Trump first took office in January, he announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which took effect on April 2.
Trump didn’t actually want to impose these tariffs; he just wanted to pressure other countries into signing agreements favorable to the US. Otherwise, it wouldn’t make sense to slap a 25% tariff on allies like Canada and Mexico, or to add an extra 10% on top of the existing 25% tariff on China.
But after waiting for a month, China, Canada, and Mexico didn’t pay much attention to Trump.
So, a few days ago, Trump went berserk, announcing that additional tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico would take effect on March 4.
The message was clear: I’m about to act, I’m really going to do it, and if you don’t come begging, I’ll definitely act. March 4, next week, I’m not joking.
On March 3, the US officially announced that tariffs would be imposed on March 4.
The message was equally clear: This is my final reminder, I’m really going to impose tariffs on you, I’m not joking. You have one night left. Call me and beg, or I’ll really do it.
On the morning of March 4, China officially announced its firm opposition and strong dissatisfaction, emphasizing that it had already prepared countermeasures.
Around 1 PM Beijing time on March 4, Trump’s tariff policy officially took effect, imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on China, officially launching a new round of the tariff war.
On the afternoon of March 4, China announced its countermeasures against the US.
On top of existing tariffs, China imposed an additional 15% tariff on US-produced chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and a 10% tariff on soybeans, pork, and other products, effective from March 10.
China added 15 US entities to a control list, prohibiting the export of dual-use civilian and military materials to them.
Due to the detection of quarantine pests such as bark beetles and longhorn beetles in imported US timber, and ergot and seed coating agents in imported US soybeans, the General Administration of Customs decided to suspend US timber imports and revoke the export qualifications of three companies involved in the soybean trade.
Following reports from some Chinese companies, the Ministry of Commerce decided to launch an anti-circumvention investigation into US-imported fiber optic products.
Before China announced its countermeasures, Canada had already announced its own, imposing a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of US imports, effective from Tuesday, March 4, and planning to impose additional tariffs on $125 billion (approximately $86.2 billion) worth of US goods within 21 days.
On the night of March 4, the Mexican president stated that he would announce countermeasures against US tariffs on Sunday.
The reactions of China, Canada, and Mexico to the US tariffs varied. Canada was even more decisive than China, playing all its tariff cards at once. Mexico, which had repeatedly stated beforehand that it had a Plan B ready to implement once Trump officially imposed tariffs, said it needed to refine its Plan B and would announce it over the weekend.
Canada was tough and to the point, while Mexico talked a lot but didn’t act decisively, representing two extremes. But in reality, both countries were just playing games with the US, seeing who could talk tougher, and in the end, the tariffs would be canceled, with only the extent of concessions differing.
Only the tariff war between China and the US is real, as the tariffs imposed by China won’t be canceled, because China absolutely refuses to negotiate unequal treaties with the US, and without such treaties, Trump won’t back down.
As a great man once said:
“The American imperialists are very arrogant; wherever they can avoid reasoning, they will certainly not reason. If they do reason a little, it’s only because they are forced to.”
This statement applies to the US 70 years ago, and it applies to the US today. Trump is no different from previous US presidents; he’s just using updated methods of being unreasonable.
China’s tariffs on the US this time were more decisive than Mexico’s but not as all-in as Canada’s. Clearly, China held back, not imposing tariffs on all US goods.
The reason for this is that the US doesn’t have much to export to China. What China wants to buy, the US doesn’t sell, restricting its own exports. What the US wants to sell isn’t as good as China’s domestic products. The only things China wants and the US can sell are agricultural products, crude oil, blood products, etc.
Some US electromechanical and chip products still sell under China’s competitive pressure, but some of these products are needed by China itself, while others are tied to the Democratic Party’s base, so they can’t be taxed.
This time, China targeted the Republican Party’s voter base, hitting them hard. This approach exerts far greater pressure than a broad-based attack, because the US has a two-party system where they hinder each other. As for the Democratic Party’s base, those can be reserved as leverage against the Democrats when they come to power.
Because the scope was limited, China couldn’t target many products, but the impact was strong, with multiple methods deployed in a full-scale attack.
Some say that, overall, China’s tariffs didn’t match the US’s, so isn’t China at a disadvantage?
In international trade, there’s no such thing as a loss, only a comparison of strength and the overall balance.
In direct trade between China and the US, China’s exports far exceed US exports, so in terms of direct tariffs, China can’t match the US. But that doesn’t mean China is at a disadvantage.
Because the world is big, far beyond just China and the US. Whether there’s a loss depends on the overall balance.
In 2018, Trump launched the first round of the tariff war, imposing tariffs on China. Seven years have passed since then.
In 2017, China’s trade surplus in goods was $422.5 billion, ranking first in the world.
In 2018, under US pressure, China’s trade surplus in goods dropped to $351.8 billion, a sharp decrease of $70 billion, mainly due to a surge in imports caused by China’s massive chip purchases, while exports remained largely unaffected.
In 2024, China’s trade surplus in goods reached $767.9 billion, doubling compared to 2018 and nearly doubling compared to 2017.
Over these seven years, both China’s imports and exports have grown significantly, achieving a huge trade surplus while also seeing a substantial increase in imports, because export growth was too rapid.
Looking at the overall balance, it’s clear that the US strategy to suppress China through the tariff war has completely failed. China wasn’t suppressed at all.
The reason is simple: there are over 200 countries in the world. The US imposing tariffs on China alone is useless, as other countries can easily engage in re-export trade. The US can only restrict China’s direct exports to the US, but it can’t stop other countries from buying Chinese products.
Even the US’s direct purchases from China weren’t restricted by Trump’s tariffs.
In 2017, the US bought $429.8 billion worth of Chinese goods.
In 2024, the US bought $528.6 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Nearly half of China’s trade surplus in 2024 came from the US.
Meanwhile, Europe, while loudly following the US in sanctioning China, has been buying Chinese goods like crazy, with its trade surplus with China doubling compared to 2017.
In 2024, China exported over $500 billion worth of goods to both the EU and the US, while importing $171.4 billion from the US and $271.4 billion from the EU. Together, these two regions contributed over $700 billion to China’s trade surplus, accounting for about 92% of China’s total surplus of $767.9 billion in 2024.
This is just the data on direct purchases from China by the US and EU, not including re-export trade from other countries. In a sense, the EU might be the largest re-export trader.
So, whether there’s a profit or not, and who bears the tariffs, is clear when you look at the import and export figures.
The impact of the tariff war could only be speculated on in 2018, but now, in 2025, seven years later, we can directly see the results.
Based on the current results, the US tariffs haven’t really hurt China. A large portion of the tariffs is indeed borne by US consumers, and the orders that can’t bear the tariffs are mostly handed over to the EU for re-export.
So, while the US imposes tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, China isn’t worried, because this doesn’t disrupt the re-export chain and has no impact on China’s overall exports.
No matter how many tariffs you impose, China’s factory prices won’t change, because they’re already the lowest in the world, with no room to go lower.
The additional tariff costs are either borne by US consumers or shifted to Europe, which then buys from China. It makes no difference; selling to Europe is just the same.
Trump would have to impose tariffs on all of Europe to partially disrupt the re-export chain.
If that happens, China wouldn’t mind at all, because as long as tariffs aren’t imposed globally, the re-export chain can shift very quickly, much faster than the US can implement policies. If this leads to a fallout between the US and Europe, it would be a huge win for China.
From the overall balance, it’s easy to see the existence of the re-export chain. Because of this, no matter how the US imposes tariffs, it’s hard to affect our overall balance. The only difference is whether the re-export fee is earned by ASEAN or the EU, but even this fee is ultimately paid by the US.
When cost-effectiveness reaches a certain level, it becomes an irreplaceable black technology.
Because the overall balance is profitable, China can face this situation calmly, unlike Canada’s urgency or Mexico’s panic.
Many years ago, when China first achieved a $300 billion trade surplus, it became the world’s largest trade surplus country.
Just a few years later, China remains the world’s largest trade surplus country, but the surplus has now reached $700 billion.
Our country alone now equals two of the former largest trade surplus countries.
No matter the winds from all directions, we stand firm and continue to grow stronger every year.
