2,470 words, 13 minutes read time
Today marks the 1,000th article in the “Big Tree Talk” headline series. For this milestone, let’s discuss the most critical external issue: the trajectory of U.S.-China relations. Tomorrow’s 1,001st article will naturally focus on domestic policies, which are the key to the future.
Compared to the past, the “fear of America” has “improved” significantly by 2025, especially after the breakthroughs in 2024 and the morale boost from DeepSeek and Nezha earlier this year. More importantly, the Democrats, who are obsessed with manipulating online media, are entangled in battles with Trump, as are America’s European allies. Under Trump’s “betrayal,” they are struggling to come up with new rhetoric that balances their interests.
Recently, Zelensky, the EU, and the Democrats engaged in a 50-minute direct confrontation with Trump’s camp. There are many interpretations of this clash, but no matter how you look at it, it proves that both the U.S. and the West are too preoccupied with their own issues to focus on meaningless public opinion warfare. After all, the role of trolls and public opinion warfare is merely to annoy people, and it has almost zero impact on China’s national decision-making.
China’s decision-making process has a robust “blood-brain barrier.” While decisions do take into account voices from the internet, and there is a highly sensitive public opinion tracking system in place, public opinion research is not solely based on the internet. No matter how loud the online voices are, they cannot influence the final decisions. This is a key reason why China can formulate and implement medium- and long-term plans.
Regarding the future of U.S.-China relations, here’s the conclusion: Be prepared for a continued deterioration.
The key reason is that Trump has no intention of solving problems. His so-called “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) is not a rational, logically-based strategy but an irrational, chaotic “winning philosophy,” as previously discussed in the article “Let Americans Feel Like They’re “Winning Big and That’s Enough”. Everything Trump does is aimed at making Americans, especially his voters, feel like they’re “winning big.” The focus of his foreign policy is domestic propaganda. Whether they actually win or not is irrelevant.
The entire MAGA movement is built on the premise of winning—proving victory from every angle, through “Endless Win”, to demonstrate their strength. This is the sole task that American voters have entrusted to Trump and the MAGA movement.
The public argument between Zelensky, Trump, and Vance at the White House is a perfect example. From a diplomatic perspective, this was a mishap between three actors and a traditional establishment figure. Marco Rubio, one of the only two traditional establishment figures within Trump’s system, clearly couldn’t handle the antics of the three actors. Vance wanted to show loyalty to Trump, Zelensky sought support from Democrats and European nations, and Trump needed to project an image of constant winning. This clash of interests turned the meeting into a farce.
The post-meeting maneuvers were interesting. In an interview, Rubio emphasized that the agreement’s content had already been finalized, and Zelensky’s attendance was merely a formality to sign the deal. He accused Zelensky of breaking his promise and stabbing them in the back. This is typical Republican establishment thinking—focusing on diplomatic rules and logic, trying to place Trump’s camp on the moral high ground to condemn Zelensky. This approach, however, is very un-MAGA, revealing that Trump doesn’t have full control and that even Zelensky can outmaneuver Trump’s team.
If we follow the MAGA logic of “always winning,” Rubio should have emphasized that everything was under Trump’s control. He should have said that the “smartest, most far-sighted, and most intuitive” President Trump saw through everything and orchestrated the meeting to expose Zelensky’s true colors, allowing the American people to see the truth and thus more firmly defend their interests. At the end of the interview, he should have declared, “Under the leadership of the great President Trump, MAGA has once again achieved a great victory.” This is what true MAGA should do—focus not on doing things but on winning. Even if they lose in reality, they must find a way to frame it as a win. This isn’t just about pleasing the boss; it’s because the foundation of MAGA’s electoral success is “winning,” and Trump is the banner of MAGA’s perpetual victory.
On the same day as the White House argument, the U.S. White House website published a briefing titled “President Trump and VP Vance Stand Up for the American People”. The White House website is publicly accessible, and you can find this article under the “News” section on the second page.
The article outlines four points made by Trump and Vance:
1. Trump said: “I’m telling you, you have no cards. With us, you have cards. Without us, you have nothing.”
Evidence includes: 52% of Ukrainians want the war to end quickly, even if it means ceding territory; the average age of Ukrainian soldiers is 43, with 1.16 million conscripts, leaving them short of personnel to operate weapons; Zelensky’s close aides believe victory is impossible; and the Ukrainian military faces issues like insufficient training, desertion, recruitment difficulties, and the arrest of key officers.
2. Trump said: “You’re gambling with World War III.”
The argument is that if the Ukraine war continues, it could lead to World War III, implying that Trump is preventing a global conflict.
3. Trump said: “I gave you Javelins to destroy all the tanks; Obama gave you blankets.”
This is a recurring point from Trump on the Russia-Ukraine issue, emphasizing that he is the one truly supporting Ukraine, with some evidence provided.
4. Vance said: “You (Zelensky) went to Pennsylvania in October to campaign for the opposition.”
This refers to Zelensky’s trip to Pennsylvania during last year’s U.S. election to support Democratic candidates.
Following this, MAGA officials and lawmakers made statements one after another, creating a sense of “everyone must pass the test”. On February 28, the White House website published another article: “Support Pours in for President Trump and VP Vance’s America First Strength”. Here are some excerpts:
Secretary of State: “Thank you, Mr. President, for standing up for America with unprecedented courage. Thank you for putting America first. America stands with you!”
Homeland Security Secretary: “I’m proud of our Commander-in-Chief. Thank you, Mr. President and VP Vance, for standing up for America. We will not tolerate political games or disrespect toward America. America is back.”
Defense Secretary: “Amen, Mr. President.”
Treasury Secretary: “Thank you, President Trump, for standing up for the American people and our nation on the global stage.”
Agriculture Secretary: “American leadership is back—in the Oval Office and on the world stage. Fearless and persistent, we will save America.”
Transportation Secretary: “Thank you, Mr. President, for standing up for America. The American people will not tolerate disrespect toward our President, the White House, or our generous taxpayers. Peace can only be achieved through strength, and our allies need to understand that.”
There’s a long list of similar statements from high-ranking officials, senators, and representatives, all emphasizing “thank you for standing up for America,” “America First,” “American people first,” and “America is back.” The most amusing one comes from Representative Paul Gosar, who said, “Thank you, Mr. President and VP Vance. The days of America being bullied are clearly over.”
It’s hard to understand when America was ever bullied.
Paul Gosar is a staunch MAGA member known for his abstract actions. In November 2021, he posted a violent and bloody video attacking Biden on Twitter. The video started with a clip from the anime “Attack on Titan”, but the subtitles were changed to “Attack on Immigrants,” and Biden’s face was photoshopped onto a man-eating monster. Such behavior would be incomprehensible even in the Japanese parliament.
Ten days later, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning Gosar by a vote of 223 to 207, marking the first time in 11 years that such a resolution was passed against a sitting representative.
The point of this lengthy explanation is to highlight the core logic of Trump and MAGA: Always win. Whether they actually win or not is irrelevant; the focus is on internal propaganda to make Americans feel like they’re “winning big.”
Therefore, there’s no need to overanalyze whether Trump has some grand strategy. It’s too complicated. At most, Trump has four years, or at least two, to get things done. From the perspective of “Endless Win,” it’s easy to understand Trump’s actions.
Why does he cater to Russia while targeting Ukraine and the EU?
Because Putin and Russia won’t indulge Trump. It’s much harder to get a sense of victory from Russia than from Ukraine and European allies.
Why are his measures so simple, repeating the same few tactics?
Because to make American voters feel like they’re winning directly, things must be simplified. Don’t delve into who ultimately bears the cost of tariffs—that’s irrelevant. Just know that “tariffs equal winning.” This is why the report “A Crazy Idea, Hard for Normal People to Understand” analyzed “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System”, which argues for the rationality of Trump’s economic policies. Under this mindset, U.S.-China relations cannot improve, at least not before Trump secures the midterm elections. Any complex negotiations, compromises, or concessions would ruin the “always winning” narrative.
Trump has also backed himself into a corner, with no way out.
Initially, Trump hoped China would cooperate, as seen with the tariffs.
On November 26, 2024, Trump publicly proposed tariffs on China for the first time after his election but didn’t specify a date. On January 21, 2025, the day after his inauguration, he proposed tariffs again, this time with a vague date, saying, “It might be February 1.”
However, China ignored Trump’s threats, with only routine responses from the foreign ministry. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order to implement the tariffs on February 4, leaving a three-day window. China responded more sternly but still didn’t initiate communication with Trump.
After the U.S. imposed tariffs on February 4, China retaliated with its own tariffs on February 10.
Trump’s usual tactic is maximum pressure—publicly and repeatedly threatening to force the other side to initiate communication and make concessions. However, from November 26 to February 4, while there was some communication between the U.S. and China, China’s attitude was more like “meeting force with force.” During this period, U.S. media also pushed narratives, such as claiming China agreed to resume the 2019 Phase One trade deal. After the tariffs, Trump even expressed a desire to visit China within his first 100 days in office.
Then came the sudden announcement of an additional 10% tariff on February 27. In a social media post discussing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Trump casually mentioned imposing an extra 10% tariff on China starting March 4, skipping the usual threat-and-extortion phase. This shift from a three-stage process (threat, executive order, implementation) to a two-stage one shows Trump’s attempt to increase pressure.
It’s worth noting that between the two rounds of tariffs, Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended a UN meeting in New York on February 18. The U.S. had hoped China would initiate talks on the tariff issue, but Wang Yi didn’t meet with the U.S. Secretary of State or National Security Advisor, only holding discussions with various groups. He didn’t engage with the issue at all.
China’s response this time was even faster. Simultaneous with the U.S. tariff announcement, China announced new countermeasures, including 10% to 15% tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products and adding 15 U.S. entities to an export control list. Unlike traditional weapons manufacturers, these entities are more focused on AI, drones, and information technology, targeting agriculture and technology with precision.
Clearly, China has figured out Trump’s playbook and prepared countermeasures in advance.
Trump’s justification for the tariffs remains the same—blaming fentanyl—but China’s official responses have grown increasingly firm.
From November 26’s “The U.S. should cherish China’s goodwill and maintain the hard-won progress in U.S.-China anti-drug cooperation,” to February 2’s “This will inevitably impact and harm future cooperation on anti-drug issues” and “shifting blame severely damages the foundation of trust and cooperation in anti-drug efforts,” to February 28’s “persisting in wrongdoing, repaying kindness with ingratitude, and compounding errors.”
It’s clear that China isn’t falling for Trump’s extortion tactics. Canada and Mexico have already shown that compromising with Trump, who only cares about winning, is pointless and will only lead to further targeting.
China is willing to negotiate, but not through submission or compromise. Only through resolute struggle can Trump be forced to abandon his extortion tactics.
In fact, Trump continues to escalate, with a flurry of actions in just the past two weeks.
Beyond the two rounds of tariffs:
On February 21, Trump signed the “America First Investment Policy” memorandum, which mentions China 21 times. It’s essentially a roadmap for decoupling U.S.-China investments, targeting not only Chinese investments but also joint investments with third parties. If implemented, forget about Chinese investments in the U.S., and even U.S. investments in China, like Tesla, will face significant risks from the U.S. government.
Also on February 21, the U.S. Trade Representative released a public notice targeting China’s shipbuilding industry, proposing measures like imposing fees of $500,000 to $1.5 million on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports, investigating anti-competitive practices by Chinese shipping companies, and blocking China’s National Transportation and Logistics Public Information Platform from accessing U.S. shipping data.
On February 25, two things happened:
1. Trump’s team hinted at further tightening U.S. controls on China’s access to chips. Last year, Biden’s global tiering of AI chips was already extreme, but Trump plans to go even further, plugging all loopholes.
2. Trump signed an executive order initiating a Section 232 investigation into copper, citing “significant vulnerabilities in the U.S. copper supply chain.” While China wasn’t explicitly named, it controls over 50% of global copper smelting capacity. However, China is a net importer of refined copper, exporting only minimal amounts of copper products.
After this overview, three clear conclusions emerge:
1. Trump and MAGA’s core interest is to prove they’re always winning, with no room for compromise.
2. China is prepared and will not accept Trump’s extortion, responding with faster, more precise, and firmer countermeasures. The focus is on struggle, not compromise.
3. Based on the above, U.S.-China relations cannot improve until Trump abandons his extortion tactics. Be prepared for further deterioration.
In summary, regarding external issues, especially U.S.-China relations, lower your expectations and be prepared to meet challenges head-on. Focus on doing your own thing and don’t waste time on a madman obsessed with winning.
In this broader context, many logics need to be re-evaluated. For example, Tesla’s FSD (Full Self-Driving) entry into China. Over the next two years, Tesla may miss out on the most intense technological transformations, which is not good for a company built on technology.
