1,373 words, 7 minutes read time
Today’s article is more of a casual chat.
Because recently, there have been quite a few articles about the United States and Russia, and it’s evident that the Americans are trying to cozy up to the Russians. So, some people have asked: Could the Russians turn around and cooperate with the Americans, stabbing China in the back?
Some have even sent me videos in the background.
One video is from before the election, where the Russian president was interviewed by an American journalist, and it was widely circulated online. In essence, it gave Trump various “divine assists.”
Another is from a couple of days ago, during a “quarrel” between Trump and Zelensky. The overall feeling was that Trump was pressuring Zelensky to sign a deal quickly, giving up territory and directly taking sides.
So, is it possible for the U.S. and Russia to team up?
Actually, no matter which country it is, if you observe the source of its behavior, it can be analyzed from two aspects: one is called benefit; the other is called pressure. These two combined can also be called interest.
Let’s look at it from the perspective of benefit first.
Although Biden often seems confident and methodical, he essentially messes everything up. But fundamentally, it’s not that he’s really bad at his job; it’s just that he’s unlucky: a declining, downhill America has encountered a rising China.
Everyone knows: if a country is in decline, even drinking cold water can choke you!
He once said: Russia is America’s greatest enemy, and China is the greatest competitor.
What does this mean?
It means that the relationship between the U.S. and Russia is one of life and death, involving the survival of the United States.
But US and China relationship is not like that; it’s just a matter of who is the boss and who is the second.
If the U.S. really can’t compete with China, it can retreat to the North American continent, still a superpower, and rely on its blood ties with Europe. Life can still go on, just not as prosperous, not as domineering, not as arrogant.
But if it loses to Russia, then sorry, the Russians will surely become the masters of Europe, just like when they defeated Napoleon until the Crimean War in 1853. Back then, Britain and France were still strong, and Europe wasn’t as dependent on Russian energy, so they could still fight whenever they wanted.
But now?
It’s not easy!
With the integration of Eurasia, American influence will be completely driven out of Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. Energy, technology, markets—everything will be there!
Then, what will be left for the U.S.?
It can only retreat to the North American continent, and it will be difficult to maintain contact with Eurasia. Slowly, it will become the second Native Americans! Everyone knows what happened to the Native Americans, and the Americans certainly know better.
If it comes to this, do you think the U.S. is afraid?
During Trump 1.0, he and Russia seemed to have a good relationship, but the result was that it almost allowed European technology and markets to unite with Russian resources. Even the “Nord Stream 2” pipeline was about to be completed, and the voice for European autonomy grew louder.
Remember what Macron said at the time?
He said: NATO is “brain dead”!
It’s just a shell; there’s no need for it to exist!
After Biden took office, he used various means to finally ignite the Russo-Ukrainian War, and also managed to sabotage the resource cooperation between Russia and Europe, such as the “Nord Stream 2” pipeline. Only then did Europe return to the embrace of the U.S.
NATO is no longer “brain dead.”
From this, what can we see? That is: cooperating with Russia, the U.S. will inevitably lose Europe, and the final result will be becoming the second Native Americans, at the mercy of others.
No benefit at all!
But if it cooperates with China? Of course, the benefit is not high either, as it is very likely to lose the title of world hegemon!
But first, China is the world’s number one industrial power, much stronger than the U.S., and it’s completely impossible to take China down; second, the U.S. itself is a resource country, and if it can cooperate with China on resources like oil, gas, soybeans, and corn. China won’t refuse. Unlike cooperating with Russia, where there’s nothing.
Now, let’s talk about the pressure part: if you look at the globe carefully, you will find that the distance between China and the U.S. is actually quite far, with the Pacific Ocean being too large, basically half the earth.
But between Europe and the U.S.?
Because the Atlantic is “S” shaped, with a small waist, the distance between the two is not far. This is why Europeans, with their poor navigation technology and bad ships, could conquer America during the Age of Discovery.
Our navigation and shipbuilding technology were actually at least 1,300 to 1,400 years ahead of Europe, but China couldn’t reach the American continent because the Pacific Ocean is just too big.
For the Russians, under what circumstances would they feel no pressure?
Only if the U.S. announces the dissolution of NATO, can Russia feel truly geopolitically secure, and the military pressure will be greatly reduced, allowing them to focus on economic development and doing business with Europe.
But doing this would almost mean kicking the U.S. out of Eurasia!
No matter how stupid the Americans are, they wouldn’t do such a thing.
And the Atlantic is narrow; how do I know that after Russia and Europe cooperate, they won’t take advantage of America’s decline to “recolonize,” turning the current U.S. into the second Native Americans?
So, under what circumstances would the Americans feel no pressure?
It would be best to have troops stationed in Ukraine, whether called NATO troops or peacekeeping troops, so they can control Europe and prevent Russia from making any waves.
From this, we can see: if the U.S. wants to unite with Russia, it can’t offer anything substantial, and what Russia wants, the U.S. simply can’t provide!
How can this deal be made?
Now, let’s talk about China’s relationship with Russia: Russia and China are economically complementary. Politically there’s no major conflict, and militarily there’s not much pressure. There’s no reason not to cooperate.
From this, we can almost see the big picture of the world: even a child knows that when the second place is progressing rapidly, it will definitely try to unite with the third place to deal with the second place.
But now?
As explained earlier: if the U.S. really does this, the disadvantages far outweigh the benefits, and it might even face a catastrophic disaster!
What good is this for the U.S.?
Moreover, there are many countries in the world with energy and resources, not just Russia. If the U.S. cooperates with Russia, Americans themselves are oil sellers; would they buy Russian oil and gas?
Even if the U.S. repeatedly shows its desire to cooperate with Russia, would Russia dare to agree?
Agreeing would mean losing the Chinese market, wouldn’t it?
Wouldn’t it mean losing China as a super supplier of goods?
These are things the U.S. can’t provide.
Of course, for both Americans and Russians, there’s one more terrifying thing: China is the world’s number one industrial power, which means super strong military mobilization and production capabilities. This also means that once China is provoked, the 1.4 billion people combined with unparalleled industry can directly compete with the rest of the world, and China might not lose.
If they really make the mistake of uniting, China’s strength would be something that the U.S., Russia, and even all other countries in the world could not bear.
From this, we can summarize: the U.S. has nothing to attract Russia; for Russia, cooperating with China is of great benefit; and if they provoke China, both countries will suffer greatly.
From this, everyone understands: is there any possibility that Russia will “stab China in the back”?
The answer is: absolutely not!
But this doesn’t prevent it from playing some flirtatious games with the U.S. for a while, trying to get a better deal from China!
